Did Evangelical Turnout Impact Election?

In the seven days since last week’s political earthquake, analysts have been crunching the numbers and trying to better understand who voted and who didn’t – and why.

One of the more interesting data points to emerge has been the decline of white evangelical or born-again Christian voters. According to exit poll data, just 17% of the electorate was composed of socially-conservative believers – down from 24% in 2022 and 23% in 2024.

What would account for a roughly 29% decline in evangelical representation at the polls?

By now you’ve likely read the popular theories for the discontent – the ongoing or unresolved conflict in Iran, high gas and consumer prices, and frustration with the character and morality of certain candidates on the ballot or even those in office who weren’t up for reelection. 

Then there’s another leading theory: the decline of self-identified evangelicals overall in the general population, which would obviously lower the pool of available evangelical voters. 

According to the Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI), the percentage of white evangelical Protestants as a share of the American population has dropped from 23% in 2007 to 13% in 2025 – a whopping 43% decline in less than two decades. 

Over the years, Dr. Al Mohler of Southern Seminary has suggested the decline of evangelicals is even more acute than the numbers reflect. 

“Right now, there are fewer evangelicals by theological definition than the sociologists tell us there are,” says Mohler.

By definition, confessional evangelicals have a passion for the Gospel of Jesus Christ, a deep and abiding commitment to biblical truth, a sense of urgency for the lost, and a commitment to personal holiness. 

Dr. Mohler has also attributed the drop to a decline in “revivalism” – that wonderful Christian tradition which evangelists preach and teach from the platform and the Holy Spirit convicts those gathered there.

“Revivalism that had been one of the key energies for producing baptisms, membership, church attendance in the SBC, revivalism doesn’t really fit the cultural moment anymore as it once did,” he shared.

But Dr. Mohler doesn’t just point fingers at the culture outside – he also points inside it, too.

“Evangelicalism has been horrifyingly thin in terms of its culture, and I think that’s because it has at times been horrifyingly thin in terms of its doctrine, theological understanding, and biblical worldview,” he stated.

In other words, theological depth is lacking – and so is the willingness of many pastors to connect what’s happening culturally with what God’s Word has to say about moral issues like the sanctity of life, marriage, gender, drug use, and even sports gambling.

Pastors aren’t expected to wade into partisan waters, but those who ignore helping congregants develop a Christian worldview to better understand what’s happening outside their doors are being derelict in their duties as shepherds of the flock.

In the end, the challenge to the Christian church in the wake of the midterm election is a timeless one – it’s to redouble its efforts to share the Good News of Jesus Christ and disciple those who are under its influence. Doing that will have a multiplying and magnifying effect – not only at the polls but everywhere else, too.