American Deaths to Exceed Births Faster Than Expected, CBO Reports
U.S. fertility has been falling to deeply concerning historic lows and according to a new Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report, that decline is expected to worsen in the coming decades.
In fact, the CBO now predicts deaths will exceed births in America 10 years sooner than their 2024 projection. In January 2024, the CBO reported that American deaths would overtake the total number of births in 2040. This new report now predicts that will now happen for the first time in 2030. This is also three years sooner than their January 2025 report, which placed that ominous date in 2033.
If this reporting trend continues, the 2027 CBO report will likely place that date even sooner, in 2028 or 2029. This means we are hurtling even closer to a natural death over fertile life trend in America.
The CBO demonstrate how quickly population growth in the United States has been declining over the last few decades. The blue markers show how annual births over deaths will grow even more dramatic through 2050.
This means an increasingly aging population. “The segment of the population age 65 or older,” the report states, “is projected to grow more quickly, on average, than younger groups, causing the average age of the population to rise.” Immigration will then become the only way America can grow. However, the U.S. experienced net negative migration in 2025 for the first time in 50 years.
The U.S. fertility rate declined to 1.6 in 2024, below the necessary 2.1 replacement level, and the CBO predicts it will decline to 1.58 this year, then to 1.53 in 2036. That is likely an overly positive prediction. They report births by women age 30 and younger will decline even more, from 0.74 births per woman this year to 0.60 in 2056.
The CBO also projects that the fertility for foreign-born women in the U.S. is expected to outpace the birthrates of native-born women. It is currently at 1.53 births for native-born women, but 1.79 births per foreign-born women. Those numbers are expected to decline to 1.50 and 1.66, respectively in 2036 and stay at roughly that rate through 2056.
The CBO trendlines look like this:
The CBO is “now projecting a smaller population over the next three decades than it projected last January.” They now predict that the U.S. population will be 7 million less in 2035 and 8 million less in 2055 than they predicted just last year. That is a 1.9 and 2.1 percent decline in population projections for 2035 and 2055 over last year’s projections.
So not only is fertility declining to historic lows, but it is declining faster than experts anticipated over the most recent years. This matters for various reasons. The interests of the CBO are highly pragmatic as the first line of their new report explains, “The outlook for the U.S. economy and the federal budget depends on projected changes in the size and composition of the population.”
Increasingly shrinking populations, where fertility becomes outpaced by deaths, mean a declining national economy and federal budget. This translates into loss of national power and influence. Babies matter because they drive the future.
This data tells us that God’s first command, to go forth and multiply, is still very much in effect. When we cease to obey, even cold, calculated government accountants will take notice and tell us something is deeply wrong. That is precisely what we find in this new government budget office report.
Related articles and resources:
U.S. Fertility Rate Falls to Lowest on Record – Again
Global Population Has Passed ‘Peak Child’ – an Ominous Milestone
Why Americans Over and Under 50 Say They Don’t Have Kids
Death of the West? U.S. Fertility Rate Falls to Record Low.
China’s Population Drops by 2 Million in 2023 Due to Record Low Birth Rate
Discarding Genesis 1, U.S. Population Set to Decline This Century Amid World Population Collapse
The Importance of God’s Design for Marriage and Family
New Report Gives Update on Family Formation and Child Well-Being
