Election Day 2024: A Final Look at What Abortion Measures Might Pass

Tomorrow is Election Day and the latest polls are finally coming in. Here’s a look at the funding and polling data, which tells us what to expect in the ten states with abortion amendments on the ballot.

But first, here are two key takeaways:

1. The funding gap between the abortion and pro-life campaigns continues to grow.

The most recent data demonstrates that abortion contributions are now over six times greater than that of pro-life efforts. Abortion activists are reporting more than $234 million compared to pro-life advocates whose contributions total around $37 million collectively.

The financial disadvantage the pro-life community has will have a crippling effect on their ability to influence voters. Does it mean they should expect a loss? Not necessarily.

Although many of these campaigns have done their due diligence to find the right messaging, without the funds to share that messaging to their targeted audience it’s difficult to secure a win for life and defeat these abortion amendments.

2. Despite the funding deficits, it’s possible for the pro-life movement to get its first win on one or more statewide abortion ballot measures if the campaigns finish strong.

Leading up to Election Day, we’re seeing that Florida, Nebraska and South Dakota are positioned to potentially see a pro-life win.

The threshold for passage in Florida is 60%. Currently, support for the abortion amendment, which would create an unrestricted “right” to abortion is only at 58%.

In Nebraska, voters will be asked to consider both an abortion amendment and a pro-life amendment. Whichever amendment gets the most votes will become law; currently the pro-life amendment is trending better in polling.

South Dakota will be very close, but current polling suggests the abortion amendment will not get the needed support of at least 50% of the voters to become law.

All three of these states currently have pro-life laws in place. Defeating abortion amendments in these states will mean saving the lives of over 50,000 babies every year.

State By State Analysis

Florida             

• Abortion contributions: $109.9 million
• Pro-Life contributions: $10.9 million
• Polling
  • Late October polling demonstrates that support for the abortion amendment has dropped to 58%.
  • Early October polling showed support at 46% and 60%. 
  • September polls show support at 57% and 55%. 
  • August polling showed support for the amendment at 61% and 58%.
  • July polling showed support at 69%. 
• Threshold for passage is 60%.
• Based on current polling, it’s plausible the abortion amendment will be defeated in Florida.

Arizona

• Abortion contributions: $35 million
• Pro-Life contributions: $1.3 million
• Polling
  • September polls show support for the amendment at 57%, 58% and 72%. 
  • Polling from late August show support for the abortion amendment at 73%.
  • May polling showed support for the abortion initiative at 65%. 
• Threshold for passage is 50% +1.
• Based on the current polling, it’s likely the abortion amendment will succeed in Arizona.

Missouri

• Abortion contributions: $30.6 million
• Pro-Life contributions: $1.9 million
• Polling
  • September polling shows support for the amendment at 57%.
  • August polling showed support at 52%. 
• Threshold for passage is 50% +1.
• Based on the current polling, it’s likely the abortion amendment will succeed in Missouri.

Montana

• Abortion contributions: $18 million
• Pro-Life contributions: $211,000
• Polling
  • Late October polling shows support for the amendment at 60%.
• Threshold for passage is 50% +1.
• Based on the current polling, it’s likely the abortion amendment will succeed in Montana.

Nebraska

• Abortion contributions: $13.2 million
• Pro-Life contributions: $11.6 million
• Polling
  • October polling demonstrates support for the abortion amendment at 44%, while support for the pro-life amendment is at 46%.
• Amendment with the most votes (over 35,000) wins.
• Based on current polling, it’s plausible the abortion amendment will be defeated and the pro-life amendment will succeed in Nebraska.

Nevada

• Abortion contributions: $11.2 million
• Pro-Life contributions: $0
• Polling
  • August polling shows support for the abortion amendment at 75%.
  • Polling in June showed support for the abortion measure at 73%.
• Threshold for passage is 50% +1, and the initiative must be approved again next election to become law.
• Based on the current polling, it’s likely the abortion amendment will succeed in Nevada.

 Colorado

• Abortion contributions: $9.2 million
• Pro-Life contributions: $518,000
• Polling
  • No public polling available.
• Threshold for passage is 55%.
• At this time, there’s not enough information to predict the outcome of Colorado’s abortion amendment.

New York

• Abortion contributions: $5.7 million
• Pro-Life contributions: $8.5 million
• Polling
  • October polling shows support for the abortion amendment at 69%.
  • May polling showed support for the amendment at 59%. 
• Threshold for passage is 50% +1.
• Based on a last-minute influx of over $8 million to defeat the amendment, the outcome of New York’s abortion amendment is unclear.
   

South Dakota

• Abortion contributions: $1 million
• Pro-Life contributions: $2 million
• Polling
  • October polling shows support for the abortion amendment at 49%.
  • June polling showed support for the measure at 53%. 
• Threshold for passage is 50% +1.
• Based on current polling and the funding advantage, it’s plausible the abortion amendment will be defeated in South Dakota.

 Maryland

• Abortion contributions: $752,000
• Pro-Life contributions: $159,000
• Polling
  • September polling shows support for this amendment at 69%.
• Threshold for passage is 50% +1.
• Based on current polling, it’s likely the abortion amendment will succeed in Maryland.

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