As of Monday, November 7, over 40 million Americans have already cast ballots in the midterm elections. That’s a huge number, spurred on in part by election changes in many states brought on by COVID-19 concerns in 2020 that made mail-in ballots and early in-person voting more available.
But will this year’s turnout, by the end of Tuesday night, break 2018’s record midterm election in which over 120 million Americans age 18 and older cast votes in the general election?
Issues such as inflation, the economy, parental rights and abortion are motivating voters to get to the polls this year, and many individual races that will determine which political party controls the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives, for example, are too close to call.
We’ve identified the races in the Senate you’ll want to keep an eye on Tuesday night.
In fact, let’s examine some of those races using the Real Clear Politics (RCP) average of polls. Yes, we know that many individual polls have been awful of late in accurately predicting where candidates stand. But by averaging out the polls, RCP historically gives a fairly good representation of what individual races on any given day look like heading toward Election Day.
Currently, the Senate is evenly split 50-50 between Democrats and Republicans. Here are some of the close Senate races to keep an eye on as election returns are reported beginning Tuesday evening.
Georgia – Herschel Walker (R) v. Raphael Warnock (Incumbent) (D). RCP average has Walker up a half percentage point, which RCP designates as “Walker +0.5.”
New Hampshire – Don Bolduc (R) v. Maggie Hassan (Incumbent) (D). RCP average = Hassan +1.0
Wisconsin – Ron Johnson (Incumbent) (R) v. Mandela Barnes (D). RCP average = Johnson +2.8
Pennsylvania – John Fetterman (D) v. Mehmet Oz (R). RCP average = Oz +0.1
Arizona – Mark Kelly (Incumbent) (D) v. Blake Masters (R). RCP average = Kelly +1.0
Colorado – Joe O’Dea (R) v. Michael Bennet (Incumbent) (D). RCP average = Bennet +5.3
Nevada – Adam Laxalt (R) v. Catherine Cortez Masto (Incumbent) (D). RCP average = Laxalt +2.8
Washington state – Patty Murray (Incumbent) (D) v. Tiffany Smiley (R). RCP average = Murray +3.0
Politico has analyzed the state of the current Senate races and calls control of the Senate “up for grabs.”
U.S. House of Representatives
It may be impossible to find any news source that doesn’t predict control of the House switching back to Republicans in January. Democrats currently enjoy a 222 – 213 numerical advantage in that chamber. But Politico, like every other news organization we have looked at, predicts that prospects after the election for the House will be “Likely Republican.” Even The New York Times says the possibility of a “surprising Democratic night” is “unlikely.”
Midterms have never favored the party of the incumbent President, something the political analysis news site FiveThirtyEight calls “one of the most ironclad rules in American politics.”
That remains to be seen.
Life Issue on the ballot
Voters in five states – California, Kentucky, Michigan, Montana and Vermont, will face the important issue of protecting the lives of pre-born infants. The ballot initiatives in California, Michigan and Vermont seek to enshrine abortion into state law in truly radical new ways. Kentucky and Montana have initiatives that protect life on their ballots.
Have you voted?
If you’re a Christian, please consider taking the opportunity to get to the polls and vote your values – if it’s not too late for you in your state. If you want to know if there’s still time to register to vote where you live, you can find out here.
Above all, pray that God will be honored in the outcome of the vote, and no matter who wins, pray for your elected representatives. “First of all, then, I urge that supplications, prayers, intercessions, and thanksgivings be made for all people, for kings and all who are in high positions, that we may lead a peaceful and quiet life, godly and dignified in every way,” I Timothy 2:1-2 (ESV).
The Daily Citizen’s election articles can all be found here.
Photo from Getty Images.