After embarrassing polling errors in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, pollsters have analyzed their past results, re-evaluated and tweaked their techniques, and are polling the 2022 midterm races across the country this year with fear and trepidation.
“Pollsters fear they’re blowing it again in 2022,” a Politico headline blares. “Perfectly Reasonable Question: Can We Trust the Polls?” The New York Times asks.
Many of the 2016 and 2020 polls seriously underestimated Republican support for candidates and overestimated support for Democratic candidates. Was it bias? Did they under sample certain demographics? Did Trump supporters refuse to talk to pollsters? There are lots of theories.
Any polling firm, whether it can be labeled as liberal or conservative or identified with a certain political party, can’t afford to be biased in the results it reports. Pollsters suffer a hit to their reputation and pocketbook if they don’t accurately show how voters are inclined to cast their ballots in the weeks and months prior to elections. Thus, the motivation to be as accurate as possible cuts across all polling organizations.
So what will you make of the polling results this election cycle, where key federal races in particular states could determine which political party controls the U.S. House and Senate come January?
Our recommendation? Ignore the pollsters. Christians have a duty to vote no matter what the pollsters are saying, so stop worrying about them. We ought to be voting based on our research of the candidates and where they stand on the issues we care about.
You don’t need a pollster to do that; you need information.
There are 39 state-level public policy organizations across the country who are allies of Focus on the Family; all dedicated to the gospel of Christ, the well-being of the family, the sanctity of life and religious freedom.
Several of them are offering voter guides to help concerned Christians understand where their local candidates stand on the issues. We want to highlight some of them here that are classified as 501(c)(3) guides and safe for churches to use.
Our friends at the Center for Arizona Policy have been at the forefront of family-centered policy advocacy in the Grand Canyon State for a long time. Cathi Herrod is the president of CAP. Their voter guide will be available on October 1 and can be obtained here.
If you are a proud Arkansan and concerned about the issues affecting your state, look no further than the good people at Family Council, headed up by Jerry Cox. As the Daily Citizen has reported, Arkansas has been named the most pro-life state in the nation two years running, thanks in large part to the hard work of Jerry and his staff. Their voter guide can be accessed here.
The Florida Family Policy Council, headed up by John Stemberger, has been an influential force on behalf of the family for many years. If you live in The Sunshine State – and please keep the citizens there in your prayers after the devastation of Hurricane Ian – you’ll want to get to know these folks and their work on your behalf. Their voter guide is here.
Hawaii Family Forum has been encouraging people in Hawaii to live out citizenship from a Biblical worldview for a long time. Led by President and CEO Eva Andrade, HFF works diligently on behalf of families in a political atmosphere that can be challenging. HFF has a voter guide that can be accessed here.
The Minnesota Family Council is a non-partisan, grassroots Christian organization dedicated to strengthening the family by advancing foundational biblical principles in churches, the media, government and the public square. Led by their CEO John Helmberger, MFC’s voter guide will be available soon and we’ll come back and link to it when that occurs.
Founded in 1988, the Nebraska Family Alliance is the longest-standing pro-family organization in the state. Led by Executive Director Karen Bowling, NFA’s mission is to advance family, freedom, and life by influencing policy, mobilizing prayer and empowering people. Their voter guide is located here.
The Center for Christian Virtue has been serving the people of Ohio since 1983, and its impact has been felt far beyond the state’s borders. Led by President Aaron Baer, CCV continues to seek the good of their neighbors throughout Ohio by advocating for public policy that reflects the truth of the Gospel. Their voter guide should be available very soon, and we’ll link to it when it is.
The Pennsylvania Family Institute is the organization to know if you live in the Keystone State. President Michael Geer and his dedicated staff work hard to strengthen families by restoring to public life the traditional, foundational principles and values essential for the well-being of society. You can find their voter guide here.
The Family Foundation, led by President Victoria Cobb, advocates for policies based on Biblical principles that enable families to flourish at the state and local level. Cobb and her staff have produced a voter guide for the state’s race in the 7th Congressional District that you can access here.
Elections have consequences, and 2022 is no different. Christians concerned about the state of our country and where it’s headed understand this at a deep level. At Focus on the Family, we don’t endorse candidates, but we do advocate that all Christians become informed and vote their values at the ballot box. Hopefully, the voter guide resources created by the family policy councils noted here will help you do just that.
Here is Why I Will Never Trust the Polls Again, and Why You Shouldn’t Either.
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