Is Inflation Driving Fertility’s Decline?
It has been well-documented that fertility is declining sharply in the United States and in most parts of the world.
In fact, the Congressional Budget Office recently reported that the U.S. fertility rate has declined so quickly, they advanced their projection of when deaths would outpace births in America by ten years over their 2024 projection. That year they projected this ominous milestone would happen in 2040. They now say births will drop lower than deaths in 2030. It will likely happen sooner as our current fertility trendline is dramatic.
Economists have been very interested in the question of why two-thirds of the world’s population now live in a country with below replacement fertility. What is driving this very concerning decline?
Is it simply because babies are just too expensive in a tightening economy? There is great debate over that question.
One celebrated economics paper recently explored the question, “Why is fertility so low in high income countries?” In fact, they point out fertility “has fallen in recent decades in almost all high-income countries.” They find this decline is not driven solely by increasing costs of living, but “conclude that the decline in fertility likely reflects a complex mix of changing norms around work, parenting, gender roles, and leisure.” To put it directly, they say fertility is declining in high income countries because of “shifting priorities, reducing the priority of parenthood.”
This is very concerning news, given the fundamental importance of parenthood to the present and future betterment of the world.
Unfortunately, there are seriously misleading messages from our government that the costs of raising a child today are beyond most people’s comprehension. But the empirical truth is that they are not. Mothers and fathers have been raising kids and successfully launching them out into the world on extremely little. Just ask your grandparents.
But a new economics paper from two emerging scholars from the University of Mississippi indicates rising costs and unexpected inflation are indeed having a negative impact on U.S. fertility. Writing for the Institute for Family Studies, these economists explain, “The main empirical result of our working paper shows that unexpected inflation had a negative and significant impact on the total fertility rate in the United States from 2004-2023.”
Their paper finds, “A one percentage point increase in unexpected inflation is expected to result in 3-5 fewer births per 1,000 reproductive-age women.”
This is not insignificant. But we must note, it does not mean that these increases make having children unfordable. It just means that it makes people increasingly believe that a child is unaffordable. Much of this has to do with the “shifting priorities” highlighted in the first paper noted above.
And interestingly, these University of Mississippi scholars find men and women respond differently to the challenges of rising prices when it comes to the thought of having children. Youth plays a factor as well. “Our results suggest that young women are mostly responsive to unexpected inflation.”
These scholars conclude their “findings are consistent with the argument that substantial increases in unexpected inflation could prompt households to postpone their childbearing decisions, leading to a reduction in fertility rate.”
These findings leave us with a challenge. We can let fear of an uncertain economic future prevent young adults from engaging in one of life’s most rewarding and essential human activities. Or we can remind young people that having children and starting a family is always an act of sacrifice and some struggle, but is the only way toward a growing human future. We must remind them that they came from parents and grandparents who had very slim resources starting out, and it was scary, but it all worked out well for the most part. After all, these adult children would not exist today without this sacrifice.
God’s command to go forth and be fruitful is still very much in effect, and the age-old problem of rising prices has not put it on hold.
Related articles and resources:
American Deaths to Exceed Births Faster Than Expected, CBO Reports
U.S. Fertility Rate Falls to Lowest on Record – Again
Global Population Has Passed ‘Peak Child’ – an Ominous Milestone
Why Americans Over and Under 50 Say They Don’t Have Kids
Death of the West? U.S. Fertility Rate Falls to Record Low.
China’s Population Drops by 2 Million in 2023 Due to Record Low Birth Rate
Discarding Genesis 1, U.S. Population Set to Decline This Century Amid World Population Collapse
The Importance of God’s Design for Marriage and Family
New Report Gives Update on Family Formation and Child Well-Being
