Polling as a Profession, Like Journalism, is Lost

One question to ask on the day after this historic and unprecedented election is “how could pollsters continue to get it so wrong?”

Of course, some pollsters have strong partisan leanings, and that prejudice comes out pretty clearly in their polling. But even those trying to do fair, honest work are showing horrible records. Nearly every pollster got the run-up to this election totally wrong.

Even The Hollywood Reporter recently asserted that election pollsters are “increasingly useless” and asked “Can we get rid of them?”

Pollster Frank Luntz said very emphatically time and again that we would not know who won this election for many days, perhaps weeks. Nate Silver put the 2024 race as a “pure toss-up” and that “50-50 is the only responsible forecast.” To his almost singular credit, Silver did say, just prior to November 5, that Trump would likely win and that it could be a sweep.

Allan Lichtman, the “polling Nostradamus,” said his polling model predicted Harris as the winner. Ann Selzer’s now infamous Iowa poll last weekend showed Harris winning that state. FiveThirtyEight and The Economist both favored a Harris win as well.

Newsweek reported on election day, “Kamala Harris predicted to win by nearly every major forecaster.”

Others who refused to make a call one way or the other agreed the election would be “a squeaker” and a final determination on the actual winner would be unclear for longer than any of us are comfortable with.

Of course, none of this happened.

As Politico reported in the opening line of their story on the race this morning, “Donald Trump didn’t steal the 2024 election. He has won it — clearly and comprehensively.”

He won not only the electoral college, but the popular vote. Trump’s win was actually so convincing Politico confessed, “The Trump movement, no matter how much this appalls opponents, is a powerful expression of democracy.”

Almost no major pollster was in touch with yesterday’s powerful expression of democracy. That is a fact.

Political pollsters are not alone. Gallup reported this fall that trust of and confidence in the mass media has hit an all-time low among liberals, conservatives and independents.

It appears as if the polling industry is racing media professionals to the bottom of the trustworthiness polls.

The world is shifting in ways that pollsters have proven themselves unable to fully understand and even appreciate. The same failure is true of most journalists.

There is no question, it is long past time for these two influential professions to take a long hard, sober look at the way they practice their crafts.

There are few professionals who could stay employed with such dramatically consistent records of getting it so wrong. Their future is in their own hands and their work, like everyone else’s, deserves to be judged on its quality.

You must do better, or go do something else. But stop pretending you are delivering value to our Republic.