gambling

Americans bet billions of dollars on the Super Bowl last weekend, with prediction markets offering bettors a new way to burn their hard-earned cash.

The American Gaming Association estimates Americans wagered more than $1.7 billion on Super Bowl Sunday through legal sports books alone.

It’s safe to assume users placed many of these bets online. Case in point: DraftKings, one of the biggest online sportsbooks in America, became the fifth most popular free app on the Apple App Store over the weekend, and the most popular sports app.

DraftKings claims it stood to pay out as much as $8 billion on Super Bowl-related bets Sunday — a massive amount of exposure driven, in part, by the record-breaking number of trades made on its prediction platform, DraftKings Predictions.

Prediction markets are federally regulated futures exchanges which allow users to trade event contracts — futures which become valuable when an event occurs.

DraftKings Predictions offers sports event contracts which are functionally identical to bets on its sports book. But, unlike gambling operations, prediction markets don’t need to seek states’ permission to operate. DraftKings Predictions is available to anyone over 18 years old, anywhere in the U.S. — including the 19 states which don’t allow online sports betting.

Kalshi, the biggest prediction market in the U.S., made money hand over fist on Super Bowl Sunday, too. Users traded:

• $500 million on whether the Seattle Seahawks or New England Patriots would win.
• $100 million on which song would be played first at the half-time show.
• $39 million on which celebrities would attend the game, including more than $23 million on whether Mark Wahlberg would show up.

The amount Americans wagered this weekend illustrates how online betting masquerades as an acceptable — even necessary — part of being a “true” sports fan.

Consider data from GeoComply, a location verification company which studied the number of people who bet online while attending a football game during the 2025-2026 NFL season.

According to the report, as many as one in eight people opened their betting apps at least once while in the stadium — not including those who traded on prediction markets like Kalshi.

Further, GeoComply found some stadiums inspired a statistically significant number of people to sign up to bet online. “Top venues,” the company reports, caused between 0.2% and 0.7% of attendees to open new online betting accounts.

If GeoComply’s data extends to the Super Bowl, a conservative 8,750 people checked their online betting apps at the game on Sunday and at least 140 opened new accounts.

Americans should not consider online sports betting on sports books or prediction markets normal — it’s a dangerous, addictive practice with tangible consequences for all Americans.

Online sports betting compromises the integrity of professional sports, markets to young people and makes most of its money off compulsive gamblers. Last April, the city of Baltimore sued FanDuel and DraftKings for using data analytics to target problem gamblers.

FanDuel and DraftKings make money from users’ losses. Kalshi and other prediction markets claim they do not have the same predatory relationship with their customers because they take a fee from every contract purchased — regardless of whether the user wins or loses.

But Kalshi isn’t just an exchange. It also makes money from its trading arm — a separate company which effectively bets against users by buying opposing contracts. This arrangement makes Kalshi’s business model as predatory as that of online sports books.

The cost of compulsive gambling affects more than finances. Problem gamblers are statistically more likely to experience and perpetrate domestic violence. They are also more likely than those with other addictions to experience suicidal thoughts.

American taxpayers pay for the fall out of problem gambling. Les Bernal, the National Director of Stop Predatory Gambling, tells the Daily Citizen:

Parents can protect their kids from online betting by warning them against predatory gambling, just like they would addictive products like pornography, drugs and alcohol.  

With prediction markets like Kalshi making it even easier for kids to bet online, parents should also carefully monitor their children’s internet access.

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Will NFL quarterback Josh Allen win this year’s most valuable player?

Will Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce get married this year?

Will Iran oust Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei by summer?

These are three of the innumerable bets offered on Kalshi, an online prediction market available anywhere in the U.S.

The federal government regulates Kalshi and its competitor, Polymarket, more favorably than online sports books like DraftKings and FanDuel — but the exchanges contain many of the same features that make online sports betting so addictive.

Here’s what you need to know about prediction markets — and why families should care.

Prediction markets are online exchanges where consumers buy and sell futures contracts.

Futures contracts refer to agreements between buyers and sellers to exchange a commodity at a predetermined price on some future date.

Traditionally, futures help business owners hedge against market volatility. A farmer, for instance, might enter a futures contract to sell his corn at a specific price. The contract protects the farmer and buyer from drastic changes to the price of the farmers’ corn, like those caused by a natural disaster.

Prediction markets like Kalshi, however, only offer event contracts — a kind of future in which the underlying commodity is whether or not an event occurs.

Right now, Kalshi users are buying futures contracts over whether Allen will win most valuable player. If he wins the award, users who bought “no” contracts must pay the agreed upon value to those who bought “yes” contracts.

Technically, yes — but it’s a controversial issue.

Event contracts are not new. For decades, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) — the federal regulatory agency which oversees futures trading — did not allow event contracts, deeming it too close to gambling.

It changed its policy in 2020, making Kalshi an official regulated exchange.

The CFTC did not allow sports event contracts until even more recently. In 2022, the commission banned Kalshi’s competitor, Polymarket, from the U.S. for offering event contracts on sports.

Now, the CFTC allows Kalshi to offer sports event contracts that mirror prop bets on FanDuel and DraftKings. In December, it lifted its ban on Polymarket, allowing it to roll out sports event contracts to a limited number of customers.

States like Nevada and traditional gambling lobbies like the American Gaming Association have sued to argue predictions markets should not be legal, but a definitive ruling could be years away.

Online sports books like DraftKings and FanDuel make money when their customers lose. They set the odds of every bet on their platforms to ensure as few people win as possible.

Kalshi, the biggest prediction market in the U.S., claims it does not benefit from customers’ losses because it does not bet against them. Instead, it offers a platform where buyers and sellers can effectively bet against one another. The exchange charges users a fee to purchase a contract, regardless of whether they win or lose.

Kalshi’s relationship with its customers is not nearly so cut and dry — but its argument convinced regulators to treat it as an investment platform instead of a gambling company.

Gambling companies like online sports books face costly regulations. They can only serve customers over 21 years old. They must be licensed in each state they operate in and pay a percentage of their profits to the states which license them.

In contrast, anyone over 18 years old can buy and sell event contracts on Kalshi. The federal government regulates Kalshi, which means it’s legal in every state and doesn’t have to give any of its income to state governments.  

Outside their regulatory differences, predictions markets and online sports books become more similar every day. Users can place the same bets on both kinds of platforms, often with similar odds.

In places where online sports betting is illegal, FanDuel and DraftKings offer their own event contract exchange platforms. Sports event contracts accounted for nearly 90% of Kalshi’s income from fees in 2025, according to Barron’s.

Kalshi differentiates itself from gambling platforms by claiming it does not bet against users. But Kalshi isn’t just an exchange — it has a trading arm which actively buys and sells contracts on the Kalshi exchange platform.

Kalshi does not disclose what contracts its trading arm buys and sells, or how much money it makes from it. But if Kalshi is effectively betting against its users and profiting, the prediction market’s business model is no less predatory than that of online sports books.

Prediction markets like Kalshi contain the same addictive elements as online sports books with fewer guardrails.

Online sports betting eliminates the natural obstacles, like going to the ATM to withdraw more cash, which might give a gambler time to think better of placing one more bet. Users can bet as much as they want, on something as small as whether the next pitch will be a ball or a strike, without leaving their couch or pausing the game.

Online sports books and prediction markets alike offer constant action, which means users can bet on virtually anything, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. Compulsive gamblers can seamlessly switch from betting on the Super Bowl to Russian women’s handball.

This new, more addictive iteration of sports betting poses particular risk to young people, many of whom are already addicted to their phones. Meanwhile, the gambling industry — including prediction markets — is bombarding the next generation with commercials and ads insinuating gambling is an essential part of the fan experience.

Now, with Kalshi, people can place bets at just 18 years old, from anywhere in the country — even places where sports betting is illegal.

Online sports betting has caused tens of thousands of people who would never have otherwise entered a casino to develop compulsive gambling, which increases sufferers’ likelihood of experiencing suicidal thoughts and domestic violence. Young people with good paying jobs are waking up to find their bank accounts drained, their plans to get married and start a family delayed indefinitely.

Compulsive gambling rips apart lives and relationships. The ripple effects impact all American taxpayers, who foot the bill for closed businesses, layoffs, bankruptcy, hospital stays, prison stints and addiction recovery associated with compulsive gambling.   

Parents should warn their children against online sports betting and betting through prediction markets the same way they warn against other addictive products, like pornography, alcohol and drugs.

These conversations should dispel the myth that “gambling” only occurs in a casino. Gambling encompasses any activity in which a person bets money on an uncertain, unpredictable outcome. Gambling against businesses who benefit from customers’ losses is especially dangerous and likely to become addictive.

Parents should lead by example and refrain from online sports betting.

Parents should also prevent their children from accessing gambling platforms, including prediction markets, prematurely. The most effective way to do this is to control children’s access to the internet.

Additional Articles and Resources

Counseling Consultation & Referrals

The NBA and MLB Investigate Gambling Corruption While Taking Money from the Gambling Industry

Public Opinion on Legal Sports Betting is Souring, Survey Shows—But Young Americans Are Betting More Than Ever

Baltimore Sues FanDuel, DraftKings for Targeting Problem Gamblers

March Madness Sends Gambling Industry Profits Sky High

‘Addictive, Exploitative, Manipulative’: Les Bernal Breaks Down Predatory Gambling Ahead of the Super Bowl

Online Sports Betting Hooking Young Men on Gambling, Research Suggests

Online Super Bowl Betting Breaks Records

The gambling industry is going gangbusters.

Sportsbooks will make a record-breaking $3.1 billion on Americans’ March Madness bets by the tournament’s conclusion on Saturday, the American Gaming Association (AGA) predicts, comfortably outpacing last year’s $2.7 billion.

March Madness profits, and the estimated $1.39 billion Americans bet on February’s Superbowl, put 2025 on pace to become the gambling industry’s most lucrative year yet.

Bill Miller, CEO and President of AGA, waxed eloquent on legal gambling’s benefits in a press release announcing Americans spent more than $71 billion on gambling in 2024.

“Every dollar of gaming revenue fuels jobs, investment and economic growth — reinforcing why the legal industry’s expansion is so important,” Miller wrote.

Les Bernal, the National Director of Stop Predatory Gambling, says these economic benefits are nothing more than smoke and mirrors.

“Betting interests like to say that the money [they make] will go to some state interest like education, but this is a revenue source that makes money from people who are addicted to gambling,” Bernal tells the Daily Citizen.

Commercial gambling operations enable addicts, but they don’t clean up the financial or social consequences of gambling addiction. That, says Bernal, falls to taxpayers:

The “half of 1%” Bernal references comes from a Wall Street Journal article finding PointsBet, an online sports book, made 70% of its profits between 2019 and 2020 from just 0.5% of its customers — gambling addicts.

This business model is industry wide. Online sportsbooks and gambling games use computer algorithms to identify compulsive gamblers and deploy “VIP-customer representatives” to keep them coming back for more.

VIP reps prevent out of control gamblers from quitting by offering well-timed rewards and vouchers for free bets.

“If you show a likelihood of chasing your losses — and, by that, I mean you gamble to recoup the money you lost gambling — you are the number one target demographic for the gambling industry,” Bernal emphasizes. “Because you won’t stop and you’re inevitably going to keep losing.”

Legal, online sports betting makes college campuses breeding grounds for gambling addiction. A 2023 survey of 3,527 college students by the NCAA found more than a fourth of students (27.5%) had placed an online sports bet. A startling 6% of respondents — 212 students — had lost $500 or more on sports betting in a single day.

Evan Ozmat counsels students at the University of Albany, where he is earning his PhD in psychology. In December 2023, he told Time magazine:

Ozmat compares the students’ experiences to drug or alcohol fueled binges:

Sportsbooks enable gambling binges by creating a seamless betting experience; the faster users can place a bet, the less time they spend considering the wisdom of another wager.

More broadly, the gambling industry markets to kids — future customers — using sports.

Sports betting has become inextricably entwined with American athletics — from TV ads, to stadium names, to sports broadcasters analyzing odds on air. Sportsbooks bombard kids with the idea that true sports fans gamble from the time they buy their first baseball cap to the day they place their first bet.

Consequently, kids begin sports gambling early and often, with no concept of the danger they’re in.

Ironically, sports betting actually worsens competition, and fans’ experience, by introducing incentives for athletes to perform poorly. Among the college basketball teams competing in March Madness, three are under federal investigation in connection with an NBA gambling ring. Players from three other colleges are being investigated for betting on themselves in fantasy games.

The remainder of March Madness will be filled with invitations to gamble. Bernal says parents can protect their kids in three ways.

The first is to simply forgo gambling yourself. Do not engage in behavior you don’t want your kids to emulate.

The second is adding gambling to the list of dangerous and addictive habits you warn your kids against, like vaping, drugs and watching pornography.

The third is to support online gambling and online gambling advertising reform at the ballot box. Bernal emphasizes:

Additional Articles and Resources

‘Addictive, Exploitative, Manipulative’: Les Bernal Breaks Down Predatory Gambling Ahead of the Super Bowl

Online Sports Betting Hooking Young Men on Gambling, Research Suggests

Online Super Bowl Betting Breaks Records