Research Shows New Data on Divorce Risk
The lifetime risk of divorce is not 50%, as so many assume.
This is the finding from a new sophisticated research analysis from the careful scholars at the Institute for Family Studies (IFS). They explain that the hope of a lifelong marriage is “no longer a coin toss.” The analysis was conducted by Yifeng Wan, a postdoctoral research associate at the University of Virginia. He explains, “My best estimate is that about 42% of first marriages today will eventually end in divorce if current patterns persist.”
While a 42% divorce risk is not great news, it is notably lower than the incorrect 50% divorce rate we often hear repeated. It is also important to appreciate that the 42% divorce risk applies to no individual or couple in particular because this is a prediction from overall populations.
As previous research done by Focus on the Family demonstrates, many couples marrying today actually have a dramatically lower risk of lifetime divorce because they have made life choices and have advantages that dramatically elevate their risk of building a successful marriage. This includes things like not cohabiting or engaging in sexual intimacy prior to marriage, sharing a common serious religious faith, growing up in an intact family, and marrying before having children.
This helpful new report from IFS is very beneficial because it explains the demographic complexities of predicting divorce risk in a very concise and straightforward way. Intelligent and quick, it’s valuable reading for all curious students of the family. You can access it here.
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