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It has been well-documented that fertility is declining sharply in the United States and in most parts of the world.

In fact, the Congressional Budget Office recently reported that the U.S. fertility rate has declined so quickly, they advanced their projection of when deaths would outpace births in America by ten years over their 2024 projection. That year they projected this ominous milestone would happen in 2040. They now say births will drop lower than deaths in 2030. It will likely happen sooner as our current fertility trendline is dramatic.

Economists have been very interested in the question of why two-thirds of the world’s population now live in a country with below replacement fertility. What is driving this very concerning decline?

Is it simply because babies are just too expensive in a tightening economy? There is great debate over that question.

One celebrated economics paper recently explored the question, “Why is fertility so low in high income countries?” In fact, they point out fertility “has fallen in recent decades in almost all high-income countries.” They find this decline is not driven solely by increasing costs of living, but “conclude that the decline in fertility likely reflects a complex mix of changing norms around work, parenting, gender roles, and leisure.” To put it directly, they say fertility is declining in high income countries because of “shifting priorities, reducing the priority of parenthood.”

This is very concerning news, given the fundamental importance of parenthood to the present and future betterment of the world.

Unfortunately, there are seriously misleading messages from our government that the costs of raising a child today are beyond most people’s comprehension. But the empirical truth is that they are not. Mothers and fathers have been raising kids and successfully launching them out into the world on extremely little. Just ask your grandparents.

But a new economics paper from two emerging scholars from the University of Mississippi indicates rising costs and unexpected inflation are indeed having a negative impact on U.S. fertility. Writing for the Institute for Family Studies, these economists explain, “The main empirical result of our working paper shows that unexpected inflation had a negative and significant impact on the total fertility rate in the United States from 2004-2023.”

Their paper finds, “A one percentage point increase in unexpected inflation is expected to result in 3-5 fewer births per 1,000 reproductive-age women.”

This is not insignificant. But we must note, it does not mean that these increases make having children unfordable. It just means that it makes people increasingly believe that a child is unaffordable. Much of this has to do with the “shifting priorities” highlighted in the first paper noted above.

And interestingly, these University of Mississippi scholars find men and women respond differently to the challenges of rising prices when it comes to the thought of having children. Youth plays a factor as well. “Our results suggest that young women are mostly responsive to unexpected inflation.”

These scholars conclude their “findings are consistent with the argument that substantial increases in unexpected inflation could prompt households to postpone their childbearing decisions, leading to a reduction in fertility rate.”

These findings leave us with a challenge. We can let fear of an uncertain economic future prevent young adults from engaging in one of life’s most rewarding and essential human activities. Or we can remind young people that having children and starting a family is always an act of sacrifice and some struggle, but is the only way toward a growing human future. We must remind them that they came from parents and grandparents who had very slim resources starting out, and it was scary, but it all worked out well for the most part. After all, these adult children would not exist today without this sacrifice.

God’s command to go forth and be fruitful is still very much in effect, and the age-old problem of rising prices has not put it on hold.

Related articles and resources:

American Deaths to Exceed Births Faster Than Expected, CBO Reports

U.S. Fertility Rate Falls to Lowest on Record – Again

Global Population Has Passed ‘Peak Child’ – an Ominous Milestone

Why Americans Over and Under 50 Say They Don’t Have Kids

Death of the West? U.S. Fertility Rate Falls to Record Low.

China’s Population Drops by 2 Million in 2023 Due to Record Low Birth Rate

Discarding Genesis 1, U.S. Population Set to Decline This Century Amid World Population Collapse

The Importance of God’s Design for Marriage and Family

New Report Gives Update on Family Formation and Child Well-Being

U.S. fertility has been falling to deeply concerning historic lows and according to a new Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report, that decline is expected to worsen in the coming decades.

In fact, the CBO now predicts deaths will exceed births in America 10 years sooner than their 2024 projection. In January 2024, the CBO reported that American deaths would overtake the total number of births in 2040. This new report now predicts that will now happen for the first time in 2030. This is also three years sooner than their January 2025 report, which placed that ominous date in 2033.

If this reporting trend continues, the 2027 CBO report will likely place that date even sooner, in 2028 or 2029. This means we are hurtling even closer to a natural death over fertile life trend in America.

The CBO demonstrate how quickly population growth in the United States has been declining over the last few decades. The blue markers show how annual births over deaths will grow even more dramatic through 2050.

This means an increasingly aging population. “The segment of the population age 65 or older,” the report states, “is projected to grow more quickly, on average, than younger groups, causing the average age of the population to rise.” Immigration will then become the only way America can grow. However, the U.S. experienced net negative migration in 2025 for the first time in 50 years.

The U.S. fertility rate declined to 1.6 in 2024, below the necessary 2.1 replacement level, and the CBO predicts it will decline to 1.58 this year, then to 1.53 in 2036. That is likely an overly positive prediction. They report births by women age 30 and younger will decline even more, from 0.74 births per woman this year to 0.60 in 2056.

The CBO also projects that the fertility for foreign-born women in the U.S. is expected to outpace the birthrates of native-born women. It is currently at 1.53 births for native-born women, but 1.79 births per foreign-born women. Those numbers are expected to decline to 1.50 and 1.66, respectively in 2036 and stay at roughly that rate through 2056.

The CBO trendlines look like this:

The CBO is “now projecting a smaller population over the next three decades than it projected last January.” They now predict that the U.S. population will be 7 million less in 2035 and 8 million less in 2055 than they predicted just last year. That is a 1.9 and 2.1 percent decline in population projections for 2035 and 2055 over last year’s projections.

So not only is fertility declining to historic lows, but it is declining faster than experts anticipated over the most recent years. This matters for various reasons. The interests of the CBO are highly pragmatic as the first line of their new report explains, “The outlook for the U.S. economy and the federal budget depends on projected changes in the size and composition of the population.”

Increasingly shrinking populations, where fertility becomes outpaced by deaths, mean a declining national economy and federal budget. This translates into loss of national power and influence. Babies matter because they drive the future.

This data tells us that God’s first command, to go forth and multiply, is still very much in effect. When we cease to obey, even cold, calculated government accountants will take notice and tell us something is deeply wrong. That is precisely what we find in this new government budget office report.