family

American Deaths to Exceed Births Faster Than Expected, CBO Reports

U.S. fertility has been falling to deeply concerning historic lows and according to a new Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report, that decline is expected to worsen in the coming decades.

In fact, the CBO now predicts deaths will exceed births in America 10 years sooner than their 2024 projection. In January 2024, the CBO reported that American deaths would overtake the total number of births in 2040. This new report now predicts that will now happen for the first time in 2030. This is also three years sooner than their January 2025 report, which placed that ominous date in 2033.

If this reporting trend continues, the 2027 CBO report will likely place that date even sooner, in 2028 or 2029. This means we are hurtling even closer to a natural death over fertile life trend in America.

The CBO demonstrate how quickly population growth in the United States has been declining over the last few decades. The blue markers show how annual births over deaths will grow even more dramatic through 2050.

This means an increasingly aging population. “The segment of the population age 65 or older,” the report states, “is projected to grow more quickly, on average, than younger groups, causing the average age of the population to rise.” Immigration will then become the only way America can grow. However, the U.S. experienced net negative migration in 2025 for the first time in 50 years.

The U.S. fertility rate declined to 1.6 in 2024, below the necessary 2.1 replacement level, and the CBO predicts it will decline to 1.58 this year, then to 1.53 in 2036. That is likely an overly positive prediction. They report births by women age 30 and younger will decline even more, from 0.74 births per woman this year to 0.60 in 2056.

The CBO also projects that the fertility for foreign-born women in the U.S. is expected to outpace the birthrates of native-born women. It is currently at 1.53 births for native-born women, but 1.79 births per foreign-born women. Those numbers are expected to decline to 1.50 and 1.66, respectively in 2036 and stay at roughly that rate through 2056.

The CBO trendlines look like this:

The CBO is “now projecting a smaller population over the next three decades than it projected last January.” They now predict that the U.S. population will be 7 million less in 2035 and 8 million less in 2055 than they predicted just last year. That is a 1.9 and 2.1 percent decline in population projections for 2035 and 2055 over last year’s projections.

So not only is fertility declining to historic lows, but it is declining faster than experts anticipated over the most recent years. This matters for various reasons. The interests of the CBO are highly pragmatic as the first line of their new report explains, “The outlook for the U.S. economy and the federal budget depends on projected changes in the size and composition of the population.”

Increasingly shrinking populations, where fertility becomes outpaced by deaths, mean a declining national economy and federal budget. This translates into loss of national power and influence. Babies matter because they drive the future.

This data tells us that God’s first command, to go forth and multiply, is still very much in effect. When we cease to obey, even cold, calculated government accountants will take notice and tell us something is deeply wrong. That is precisely what we find in this new government budget office report.

Related articles and resources: 

U.S. Fertility Rate Falls to Lowest on Record – Again

Global Population Has Passed ‘Peak Child’ – an Ominous Milestone

Why Americans Over and Under 50 Say They Don’t Have Kids

Death of the West? U.S. Fertility Rate Falls to Record Low.

China’s Population Drops by 2 Million in 2023 Due to Record Low Birth Rate

Discarding Genesis 1, U.S. Population Set to Decline This Century Amid World Population Collapse

The Importance of God’s Design for Marriage and Family

New Report Gives Update on Family Formation and Child Well-Being

Was Teddy Roosevelt America’s Most Masculine, Family Man President?

It could well be the case that with Theodore Roosevelt, America has never had a president who spoke so passionately and modeled so beautifully the virtues of masculinity, family, marriage and children.

In speech that he gave in 1897, Teddy Roosevelt declared:

No man is worth his salt who is not ready at all times to risk his well-being, to risk his body, to risk his life, in a great cause.

Speaking in 1905, President Roosevelt stated:

The foundation stone of national life is the family, and unless that foundation stone is firm and solid, there is nothing upon which to build.

Addressing America’s highest ideals, T.R. once observed:

The highest and finest product of civilization is a man and woman who work together in the home for the upbringing of children.

Our 26th president, Roosevelt was the youngest ever to be chief executive. Taking the oath at the age of 42 following the assassination of President William McKinley in 1901, the famed “Rough Rider” both faced and forged his way through difficulty. Roosevelt’s first wife died in 1884. He remarried in 1886. He fathered 6 children and gained a reputation as a principled but playful family man.

The Roosevelts hiked, swam, fished and hunted. He was an accomplished boxer and believed the good life was a vigorous one.

Mothers and fathers looking to inspire and educate their children might consider teaching them about T.R. One way they might do so is by introducing their tweens and teens to the television show, “Elkhorn” — a drama on the INSP Network.

You might know INSP by its original name — The Inspiration Network — a cable outfit first established as a non-profit organization coming out of the PTL Television Network. Now headquartered in South Carolina, INSP says their goal is to provide American families with high quality, clean, and safe entertainment that won’t offend their moral or Christian convictions. They have a special focus on westerns, action-dramas, and programs that celebrate and champion heroic characters.

“Elkhorn” — which tells the story of Teddy Roosevelt’s time in the Dakotas following the death of his first wife — fits well the noble mission of the network.

Not only did Roosevelt lose his wife, Alice Lee, on February 14, 1884, but he also lost his mother, Mittie, who died of typhoid fever that same day.

“The light has gone out of my life,” wrote Teddy in his diary. Grief stricken, he decided to take off for Medora, North Dakota. T.R. had visited the Dakota territory on a buffalo hunting trip in 1883. He felt like the journey and time outside of the familiar east coast would help him process and recover from the tragic losses.

Settling in North Dakota, Roosevelt established Elkhorn Ranch in the Badlands. His time there was difficult, but also formative and fulfilling. “I never would have been President if it had not been for my experiences in North Dakota,” T.R. would later say.

The “Elkhorn” television show dramatizes and inevitably fictionalizes some of Roosevelt’s adventures, but there’s no denying that the former president’s time there helped develop his toughness, cultivated his confidence, and reaffirmed his contention and conviction that the strenuous life is superior to a sedentary one.

Americans woke up on January 7, 1919, to sad news from the day before. A triple decker New York Times headline relayed the story:

THEODORE ROOSEVELT DIES SUDDENLY AT OYSTER BAY HOME; NATION SHOCKED, PAYS TRIBUTE TO FORMER PRESIDENT; OUR FLAG ON ALL SEAS AND IN ALL LANDS AT HALF MAST

In addition to Elkhorn on television, families might want to consider planning a trip to the soon-to-be-opened Theodore Roosevelt Presidential Library in Medora, North Dakota. Fittingly, the grand opening is slated for July 4 — our nation’s 250th birthday. Teddy’s last words were “Please put out the light,” a directive to his servant James. Thankfully, whether on television, in books, or in the new Roosevelt Library, the spotlight on our nation’s 26th president continues to shine brightly.

Which Book Would You Want Your Child to Read?

Two children’s books. Two opposing worldviews. One cultural fork in the road.

This month, Live Action released I’m a Baby. Watch Me Grow, a children’s board book highlighting prenatal human development in the womb.

Next month, Abortion Is Everything, a children’s book written by abortion activists and aimed at kids as young as five, will be released.

The timing is not accidental. It reflects a broader cultural struggle over who will shape the values of the next generation — and how early that influence begins.

Abortion Is Everything was written by the founders of Shout Your Abortion, an organization devoted to normalizing abortion. Marketed directly to young children, the book presents abortion as a “superpower” — a tool that enables people to pursue their future.

This is not education. It is indoctrination.

The book offers no honest account of abortion’s reality: that it ends a human life. It entirely avoids the moral gravity of that act. Instead, abortion is framed as something good, necessary and affirming — presented to children who are still learning the most basic distinctions between right and wrong.

The underlying message is clear: personal autonomy matters more than life itself.

In sharp contrast stands I’m a Baby. Watch Me Grow. It simply presents biological reality — heartbeat, growth, movement and development in the womb.

It doesn’t mention abortion. It doesn’t need to.

Both books communicate a position on abortion, but they do so in fundamentally different ways.

One begins with a political conclusion and attempts to train children to accept it morally.

The other begins with biological truth and allows moral understanding to follow naturally.

One refuses to recognize the preborn child at all.

The other acknowledges that the preborn baby is a human being in its earliest stage.

These books reflect a deep cultural divide — a disagreement not just about policy, but about who is human and which humans deserve protection.

Abortion advocates understand this debate is not merely legal, but moral and generational. They know children form beliefs early, so they wrap abortion in pictures, affirming language and emotional appeals.

Pro-life advocates are responding by grounding children in truth: that life before birth is real, human and worthy of moral consideration.

Every culture reveals what it values by what it protects. Are we a culture that elevates self-autonomy and self-interest above all — even when the cost is a vulnerable human life? Or are we a culture that recognizes the value of human life regardless of size, location, ability or dependency?

Children’s books are not neutral. They are tools of moral formation. They teach children what matters — and who matters.

One book teaches children that abortion is freedom. The other teaches that life is worthy of protection.

These are not competing facts. They are competing visions of humanity.

One leads toward a culture that affirms death. The other toward a culture that chooses life.

So, which book would you want your child to read?

The Death of Rob Reiner: A Case and Call for Parental Compassion

The murders this past weekend of actor, director and activist Rob Reiner and his wife, Michele, are one of those stunning and heart wrenching tragedies made all the more awful given the arrest of their son, who is the main suspect in the case.

Nick Reiner was charged with two counts of first-degree murder.

Mr. Reiner, 32, has a long history of struggling with drug addiction. Reports indicate he’s been in and out of rehab facilities for decades. He even made a movie (“Being Charlie”) with his father that detailed the tragic story of a politician father navigating the spiraling drug problems of his son. The project was seen as something of a therapeutic balm for the Reiner family – a way to process and redeem years of heartache and struggle.

It’s tragically ironic that at a time when support for the legalization of drugs like marijuana and psychedelics is growing in some circles, more and more American families are dealing with chronic substance abuse in the home.

According to the National Institutes of Health (NIH), upwards of a quarter of all children have a parent plagued by a substance abuse disorder. Over 3.4 million have multiple addictions. All told, nearly 30 million adults in the United States last year abused drugs.

At Focus on the Family, our counselors field thousands of calls each year from parents dealing with all kinds of issues – including many navigating the challenges of an adult child struggling with an addiction. Each desperate plea is uniquely painful, but a common thread woven throughout the conversations is often heartache and helplessness as a mother or father.

Allison Bottke, an author and speaker specializing in guiding exhausted and exasperated parents dealing with an addicted loved one, has come up with an acronym to give moms and dads something practical to consider. She offers 6 steps to “S.A.N.I.T.Y”:

  • S: Stop hoarding your hurts.
  • A: Assemble supportive people around you.
  • N: Nip excuses in the bud.
  • I: Implement a plan of action.
  • T: Trust the voice of the Holy Spirit.
  • Y: Yield everything to God.

As a ministry, Focus on the Family offers trusted referrals to organizations and individuals especially equipped to help parents cope and best help loved ones who are spiraling out of control.

As an actor, filmmaker, and political activist, Rob Reiner’s work elicited strong reactions. Over the years, some of his work touched on controversial and destructive themes. At the same time, it’s been said that many of Rob Reiner’s films had a “human dearness” to them – a sweetness that audiences didn’t know they craved until they watched his movies and stories unfold. Maybe it was because many of the storylines were so personal.

Looking back on the creation of the movie, “Stand By Me,” Rob said:

What I came up with was this little boy who thinks little of himself, who has a gift for writing, who is a creative person. And, through the encouragement of his best friend, he is able to start realizing himself and liking himself and going on to becoming a success.

He then added:

Then we folded in the idea of the father not understanding the kid, which was alluded to in the original novella by Stephen King. And that connected up with my life story, which was a struggle I had when I was growing up with a father that certainly loved me deeply but never quite understood me.

Rob grew up watching his famous father, Carl Reiner, direct “The Dick Van Dyke Show” – an experience he calls his “first apprenticeship.”

The Rob Reiner story was a familiar one. The son of a big shot, he struggled to connect with his dad. All along, he was plagued by the feeling that he wasn’t really great at any one thing.

“You see, I’m a good writer, but I’m not a great writer,” he explained. ”I’m a good actor, not a great one. I have some musical ability, but I’m not a great musician, and I have a sense of composition and colors, but I’m not a great artist.”

Yet, directing allowed him to utilize all those good qualities – and become a great director.

Rob said he immediately resonated with William Goldman’s “Princess Bride” novel when he first read it in 1973. Once more, though, he felt drawn to the story on a personal level:

People take a look at Princess Bride, and exclaim, ‘This is such an odd conglomeration! How could you balance all those things?’ But it didn’t seem all that strange to me, because those are all parts of my personality – I’ve definitely got this satirical side to me, and this romantic side, and this more realistic way of looking at things, which is symbolized by the grandson’s difficult relationship with his grandfather, who is reading the story – so it wasn’t alien to me. If this were simply a pyrotechnic movie and didn’t have all these weird characters, I wouldn’t have known how to do it.

Christians can simultaneously hold some of Reiner’s work and activism at a distance and yet grieve this tragedy and have a strong spirit of compassion for what he and his wife navigated for decades with their son. Their murders represented a tragic conclusion to their parenting journey – and thankfully, that evil is an outlandish outlier that few moms and dads will suffer

Yet, much milder versions of that alienation, rage, rebellion and violence unfold every day in homes everywhere. Please join us in praying for those entangled in such grief and misery. And please consider reaching out to us if you or a loved one are in need of counseling and direction.

Celebrating a Letter From a Mother to Her Heisman-Winning Son

Elsa Mendoza, mother of Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza, is battling multiple sclerosis. Just prior to her son receiving the famed award in New York on Saturday, she wrote him an emotional letter expressing gratitude for how he’s supported her over the years.

Mothers and fathers sacrificially pour themselves into their sons and daughters when it comes to athletics. Whether it’s driving them to practices, attending their games, taking on a second job to afford camps or simply playing with them in the backyard or driveway, sport moms and dads are a unique breed.

But the Mendoza story is unlike most. Given Mrs. Mendoza’s physical challenges, we learn a bit more about the Indiana Hoosier’s character by reading her letter to him.

Here are a few excerpts Elsa’s note to Fernando:

“You’ve made me feel seen. Whether it was giving me full debriefs of your college visits, what you liked and disliked (pictures included) … or it was calling me before some big game I had to miss while in treatment … or it’s being so vocal and passionate about MS fundraising … When you have to carry me up the stairs … you’ve always kept that same spark in your eye.

“No matter what kind of state I’ve been in, or day I’ve been having — you’ve never once looked away. You’ve never once treated me like I’m embarrassing, or deficient, or anything other than someone you love and are standing by.

“And even as my condition has gotten worse, and as our lives continue to change around that fact: You manage to make me feel like I’m still every part of myself. Like I’m still that same person you’ve been teammates with since we got through our first Boston winter together. Like I’m still that same mom.

“Your accomplishments will NEVER impact how proud of you I am. Because you are already everything I could have hoped for as a mother…. and that has nothing to do with the miles you throw or the touchdowns you score. It has everything to do with the man you’ve grown into.

“As an oldest brother who shows the way. As a hard worker who has an unstoppable spirit. As a Cuban American athlete who represents his community. As a leader who lifts up, and lends kindness, even when no one is looking. As a person of faith, who leans on God and trusts Him, even when it’s an uneasy road. You have a future that’s so bright and a heart that’s so full. My gentle giant. My darling son. My buddy. My teammate. I believe in you with every part of me. I’m proud of you, not just today, but every day.”

On Saturday night, as Fernando received the award, he said:

Mami, this is your trophy as much as mine. You’ve always been my biggest fan. You’re my light, you’re my why, you’re my biggest supporter. Your sacrifices, courage and love have been my first playbook and the playbook I will carry by my side through my entire life.

You taught me that toughness doesn’t need to be loud, it can be quiet and strong. It’s choosing hope, it’s believing in yourself when the world doesn’t give you much reason to. Together, you and I are rewriting what people think is possible. I love you.

After Indiana University upset Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship, Mendoza told ESPN:

I want to give all the glory to God. We were never supposed to be in this position, but by the glory of God, the great coaches, great teammates, everyone we have around us, we were able to pull these off.

Mendoza is from Miami. He attends Mass and leads a weekly Bible study.

Whether on the field or off, Fernando is guided by a simple but profound truth, quoting Scripture:

“With God, all things are possible.”

Photo credit: ESPN