Election 2026

Polls Don’t Decide Elections. Voters Do.

If the polls are correct, Democrats are likely to have a great year in the 2026 midterm election, now less than two weeks away.

In the Generic Congressional Vote Average, Democrats are currently ahead by 8.6 percentage points, which is 0.2 points more than their final vote average in 2018 (8.4 points), when Democrats won 41 House seats.

Democrat candidates for Senate are also leading in Texas (by 2.2 percentage points); Ohio (by 2.4 points); Michigan (by 2.6 points); Maine (by 1.6 points); Alaska (by 2.2 points); Georgia (by 8.6 points); and North Carolina (by 9.0 points).

If those polls become reality, Democrats would almost certainly win the U.S. House of Representatives and take control of the Senate by a 52-48 margin, gaining five seats.

But here’s the million-dollar question: How likely are the polls to be correct?

Polling Errors in 2020

While polling is often seen as generally reliable, polls can also be wrong – and sometimes, very wrong.

In the 2020 presidential election, multiple polls showed then-candidate Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by double digits. The Economist/YouGov’s final poll had Biden leading by 10 percentage points. CNBC/Change Research also had Biden up by 10 points. Quinnipiac had Biden up by 11 points. NBC News/Wall Street Journal had Biden up by 10 points. And the final CNN poll had Biden up by 12 percentage points just two weeks ahead of the election.

The final Real Clear Politics (RCP) average had Biden ahead by 7.2 percentage points.

In the end, Biden won the national popular vote by just 4.5 points.

Similar polling errors occurred at the state-level that year, too.

In Florida, the final RCP average had Biden up by 0.9 percentage points. The last Quinnipiac poll had Biden up by 5.0 points. President Trump won the state handily by 3.3 points.

In Wisconsin, the final RCP polling average had Biden leading by 6.7 percentage points. The last Reuters/Ipsos poll projected Biden to win by 10 points, while The New York Times/Siena poll found Biden up by 11 points. And in one of the worst polls of that entire election cycle, the last ABC News/Washington Post poll said that Biden was leading by a whopping 17 points at the end of October.

Biden ended up winning by just 0.7 percentage points.

In Michigan, the final RCP average showed Biden up by 4.2 percentage points. Three of the last five polls had Biden up by 7 points. The final CNN poll showed Biden up by 12 points while the last Reuters/Ipsos poll showed Biden up 10 points.

The final result: Biden won by just 2.7 percentage points.

In 2020’s most crucial Senate races, the polls were also disastrously off. In the Maine Senate race, every single poll conducted that year projected Democrat Sara Gideon to beat incumbent Republican Susan Collins. The final three polls of the race showed Gideon up by 6 percentage points, 4 points and 7 points, respectively.

Susan Collins easily won the race by 8.8 percentage points. This means the last three polls were off by anywhere between 12.8 and 15.8 percentage points.

Polls were also off by a similar margin in North Carolina that year.

Recent Polling Errors

Yet, polling errors aren’t just a thing of the past.

In the 2025 Virginia governor’s race, Democrat Abigail Spanberger led Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears in the last four polls by 10 percentage points, 9 points, 7 points and 12 points, respectively. But Spanberger overperformed the polls, winning by 15.2 percentage points.

Even greater errors have occurred this year, too.

In the Michigan Senate Democrat primary, the final four polls showed Abdul El-Sayed leading challenger Rep. Haley Stevens by 14 percentage points, 15 points, 10 points and 16 points, respectively.

El-Sayed ended up winning by only 1.0 percentage point. Most polls were off by double digits.

In the Texas Senate Republican primary, the final three polls showed Attorney General Ken Paxton beating Senator John Cornyn by 10 percentage points, 22 points and 12 points, respectively. Paxton ended up winning by 27.6 points.

In the Minnesota governor Republican primary, the final three polls showed Mike Lindell beating Rep. Lisa Demuth by 6 percentage points, 9 points and 5 points, respectively. Demuth ended up winning by 10.9 percentage points.

Some political analysts speculate polls in recent years have tended to favor Democrats because they are more likely to respond to pollsters than Republicans.

“When you’re seeing high-propensity Democrats [responding to polls] at twice the rate of high-propensity Republicans, when we know that the turnout on both sides would be roughly evenly paired, that’s a warning sign for polling in this cycle,” Patrick Ruffini, a founding partner at Echelon Insights, recently told Politico.

Likewise, Fox News Chief Political Anchor Bret Baier recently explained how Republicans could retain control of the Senate if polls are wrong at similar margins of past elections.

“Republicans have tended to outperform the polls in some of these past Senate races in some of these different states,” Baier explained. “If that pattern holds, the Republican path to keeping the Senate becomes much more clear.”

Sometimes the polls are right. Sometimes they’re not – and dramatically so. Will the polls be spot on when we watch the results roll in on November 3? That remains to be seen.

But what’s clear is that polls do not decide elections. Voters do.

Related articles and resources:

Christians: Go Out and Vote This November

Christians Must Get Out to Vote This November

Why Should I Vote?

Understanding the Importance of Voting

Every Single Vote Matters

5 Easy Ways Christians Can Get Involved in Politics

Are You Registered To Vote? If Not, Today is the Day to Do It.

Here is Why I Will Never Trust the Polls Again, and Why You Shouldn’t Either.

Photo from Shutterstock.

Alabama Citizens to Vote on Prayer, Pledge of Allegiance in Public Schools

Alabama citizens will consider two important ballot measures in the upcoming 2026 midterm election, deciding whether to support the Pledge of Allegiance, student-initiated prayer, and “The Star-Spangled Banner” in public schools.

The Alabama Legislature referred the two measures to voters in the upcoming election, passing them both in bipartisan fashion earlier this year. Now the measures are in the hands of Alabama citizens.

The first, Alabama Amendment 3, “Require Pledge of Allegiance and Allow Student-Led Prayer in Public Schools Amendment,” proposes the following official ballot language:

Proposing an amendment to the Constitution of Alabama of 2022, to require local boards of education to adopt policies requiring each public K-12 school to recite The Pledge of Allegiance to the United States flag at the beginning of each school day; and to require local boards of education to adopt a policy authorizing student-initiated and student-led prayer.

The Alabama House of Representatives voted 94-3 to approve the ballot measure and send it to voters to consider. The Alabama Senate voted 30-0 to approve the measure.

Alabama Rep. Reed Ingram, who supports Amendment 3, said, “A lot of these kids want to be exposed to God or have that opportunity to worship, and this gives them that. They don’t have that opportunity at home because their parents may work two or three jobs and work on Sunday.”

Julie Conrady of the Unitarian Universalist Church of Birmingham and Tuscaloosa opposes the amendment, arguing it would “create a further hardship [for students] of diverse religious beliefs.”

However, the measure does not require students to participate in reciting the Pledge of Allegiance or in prayer. Instead, it grants students “the right to opt out of participation in the Pledge of Allegiance or the prayer based on their own beliefs.”

A “yes” vote supports changing the Alabama Constitution to require public schools to conduct the Pledge of Allegiance and allow for student-initiated, student-led prayer at the beginning of the school day.

The second, Alabama Amendment 4, “Broadcast The Star-Spangled Banner in Public Schools Amendment,” proposes the following official ballot language:

Proposing an amendment to the Constitution of Alabama of 2022, to require local boards of education to adopt policies requiring each public K-12 school to broadcast or sanction the performance of the first stanza of The Star-Spangled Banner at least once per week during school hours.

The Alabama Senate voted 23-5 to approve the ballot measure and send it to voters to consider. The Alabama House of Representatives also approved the measure in a 75-27 vote.

Shawn McDaniel, superintendent of Pickens County, who supports Amendment 4, said, “I believe schools play an important role in helping students develop and appreciate our country and the value it represents, an opportunity to reflect on our nation’s history.”

A “yes” vote supports changing the Alabama Constitution to require public schools to play “The Star-Spanged Banner” at least once per week.

Election Day is November 3. Alabama does not allow early voting. However, some jurisdictions offer excuse-required absentee voting. Alabama voters can visit the secretary of state’s office’s website to learn more.

This year, Christian voters around the nation have an opportunity to shape the course of our country by voting in the upcoming midterm election. We encourage you to vote on or before Election Day depending on your state’s early voting laws. If you’re not register to vote, register today!

Related articles and resources:

Christians: Go Out and Vote This November

Christians Must Get Out to Vote This November

Why Should I Vote?

Understanding the Importance of Voting

Every Single Vote Matters

5 Easy Ways Christians Can Get Involved in Politics

Are You Registered To Vote? If Not, Today is the Day to Do It.

Photo from Shutterstock.

Missouri Voters Can Protect Life, Stop ‘Transgender’ Procedures for Minors

Missouri voters will decide whether to repeal a constitutional amendment approved in 2024 that created a “right” to abortion, restore protections for preborn babies and protect kids from “transgender” procedures.

A “Yes” vote on Amendment 3 would repeal the 2024 abortion amendment, restrict most abortions and prohibit “transgender” procedures for minors. A “No” vote would leave the 2024 abortion amendment in place.

In November 2024, Missouri voters narrowly approved a constitutional “right” to abortion by a vote of 51.6% to 48.4%.

Prior to that election, Missouri law protected preborn babies from the moment of fertilization, with limited exceptions.

Now, just two years later, voters have an opportunity to reverse that decision. It is the first statewide ballot measure attempting to repeal a voter-approved constitutional amendment to enshrine abortion into the state constitution.

Proponents are touting two aspects of the ballot measure: 1) it will protect preborn babies and 2)it will protect minors from “transgender” procedures. 

If approved, Amendment 3 would repeal the constitutional “right” to abortion and allow the state to once again protect preborn human life.

The amendment would permit abortions in cases of medical emergencies, fetal anomalies and pregnancies resulting from rape or incest during the first 12 weeks.

It also protects access to medical care for miscarriages, ectopic pregnancies and medical emergencies.

“Her Health, Her Future,” the campaign supporting Amendment 3, explains that the measure would:

• Ban “transgender” procedures for minors.

• Guarantee women have access to safe healthcare.

• Require parental consent before minors have an abortion.

• Ensure clinics have qualified medical professionals and proper health standards.

State law prohibits most “transgender” medical procedures for minors. Amendment 3 would put those protections into the state constitution, making them more difficult to repeal.

The abortion lobby is spending millions to defeat the measure.

According to Ballotpedia, abortion activists opposing Amendment 3 have raised approximately $20.4 million, compared to $3.7 million raised by pro-life advocates.

Missouri Independent reports, the opposition campaign has collected donations from Planned Parenthood, the ACLU of Missouri and other abortion advocacy organizations.

The Fairness Project, a progressive Washington, D.C.-based organization, has contributed more than $12 million to the campaign against Amendment 3.

Interestingly, recent polling suggests a very close election. An August Saint Louis University/YouGov August poll found 43% of likely voters supported Amendment 3, 44% opposed it and 13% were undecided.

The numbers appear to be moving in favor of abortion. Polling in February had support for the amendment at 47%, opposition at 40% and undecided at 12%. It appears as though the fate of this amendment will be determined by those who are currently undecided.

Amendment 3 requires a simple majority to become law.

You can learn more about Amendment 3 and the campaign to protect life at “Her Health, Her Future.” 

Focus on the Family urges all our friends to vote this election cycle. Voting is our civic duty. As Bible-believing Christians, it is imperative that we vote our values.

Missouri’s no-excuse early voting begins October 20. Election Day is November 3.

Washington School System Harasses Parents Protecting Daughters From Boy in Girls Cross-Country Meet

At least 12 high school girls chose to forfeit a cross-country race in Washington on Tuesday rather than compete against their teammate — a boy.

About half of the Camas High School girls’ cross-country team walked off the course Tuesday instead of racing against an 11th grade boy who, until September 5, competed with the boys.

In his last race with the junior varsity boys, the male athlete placed 76th. On September 15, in his first race with Camas High’s varsity girls, he placed seventh.

On Tuesday, he placed second.

This latest injustice in Washington interscholastic sports illustrates the continued cowardice of teachers, administrators and coaches, none of whom have come out in support of these defenseless girls.

At best, they fear for their jobs. At worst, they, too, believe hundreds of female athletes should sacrifice their athletic success and comfort so a boy can feel good about himself.

The girls, the children, do the hard thing, instead. They willingly sacrifice their opportunities. They face down the idealogues and bullies, because adults won’t do it for them.

When their parents try to protect and support them, Camas School District and the Washington Interscholastic Activities Association (WIAA) play hardball.

Skyview High School students Sierra and Charlie, both just 16 years old, chose not to race against the male athlete on September 15. The duo walked off the course at the sound of the starting gun, their arms and legs painted with, “Keep women in women’s sports,” their cheeks painted with “XX” and “XY.”

Sierra’s parents stood in support at the starting line, holding signs that read, “It will never be ok for an XY to steal an opportunity from an XX,” and, “Please only XX competing with XX [and] XY competing with XY — keep it fair.”

An official told them to leave the area within twenty seconds, Sierra’s dad, Joel, told Undivided podcast host Brandi Kruse in an interview.

“I looked at the fellow and asked why I needed to leave,” Joel contisued. “He said it was against the WIAA rules to have any signage other than a school flag.”

WIAA, consistent with the Office of the Superintendent of Public Instruction, also requires students play sports and use changing rooms according to their “gender identity,” rather than their biological sex.

Joel avoided being kicked out by putting down his sign. He stayed long enough to watch the girls exit the course. But he wasn’t finished — not by a long shot. He told Kruse:

I decided to make a scene since they wouldn’t let me peacefully protest. I decided to protest loudly on my way to my vehicle. I knew they were going to ask me to leave. So I let myself out by holding up the sign and just chanting, “Keep boys out of girls sports.”
I basically chanted that from the starting line to my car. Then I got in my car and drove past the venue with a friend holding the sign and honking to try and get as much attention as we could.

“Again, that was not our intention,” Joel clarified. “Our intention was just to peacefully hold the sign, but we weren’t allowed to do that. So we decided to get the word out our way.”

Camas School District responded by criminally trespassing the father from district property for the rest of the year.

Joel is a local soccer coach. He is still unsure whether he can coach his team at a Camas facility.

Holly Burns is one of the twelve Camas High students who sacrificed her race Tuesday to protest competing against a boy. Her parents, Sarah and Kevin Burns, came to support the girls with signs. They, too, faced opposition.

“[Security] said that we’re not allowed to hold up signs at this event today,” Kevin told Outkick reporter Jackson Thompson. “I questioned them if that was constitutionally legal, if we could express ourselves by just holding a sign.”

“In the end, it didn’t seem like they really had a grasp on what they could tell us to do or not.”

Eventually, says Kevin, he and Sarah managed to hold their signs — but security dogged their every step, telling them to leave. The couple refused.

These families’ experiences illustrate how much influence the public school system wields, not just over students, but the adults that are supposed to protect them.

How egregious that the only recourse left to these families is for the girls — the children — to show more bravery than the school officials around them.

What a world.

Happily, Washington voters can change girls’ bleak reality at the ballot box this November. Initiative 638, “Protect Fairness in Girls Sports,” would prevent males from competing in girls sports.

A “yes” vote on Initiative 638 would protect girls like Sierra, Charlie and Holly from having to race against — and change next to — a male athlete. A “no” vote would allow boys to continue competing in girls sports categories on a whim.

Initiative 638 could protect the dignity and safety of hundreds of female athletes to come. But change may not come fast enough for cross-country athletes like those at Camas High School.

Initiative 638, if approved, would take effect thirty days after election day on November 3.

The Washington state cross-country championships will take place on November 7.

Additional Articles and Resources

Washington Ballot Measures protect Girls Sports and Parental Rights

Paradox Institute: Sex Screening in Sports: How It Works

Female Wrestler Sues Washington School District, Others for Forcing Her to Face Male Opponent

4 Developments in Case of High School Wrestler Allegedly Assaulted by Male Opponent

Washington School District Buries Female Wrestler’s Sexual Assault Complaint Against Male Opponent

Abortion and Marriage Amendments on Virginia Ballot This Fall

Virginians will vote on two constitutional amendments that affect the family this fall. Question 1 asks voters to enshrine abortion in the state constitution and Question 2 would redefine marriage.

A “Yes” vote on Question 1 creates a constitutional “right” to abortion in the state. A “No” vote would help save babies’ lives.

A “Yes” vote on Question 2 removes the definition of marriage as the union of one man and one woman from the Virginia Constitution. A “No” vote keeps the Constitution’s existing definition of marriage unchanged.

Both measures were referred to the ballot by the Virginia legislature.

Question 1 — Abortion

Question 1 asks voters to enshrine abortion in the state constitution.

If approved, the proposed amendment would add the following language to the Virginia Constitution:

That every individual has the fundamental right to reproductive freedom, including the ability to make and carry out decisions relating to one’s own prenatal care, childbirth, postpartum care, contraception, abortion care, miscarriage management, and fertility care.

The amendment goes on to say that, though the state may regulate abortion in the third trimester, it may never prohibit an abortion a physician says is needed to protect the woman’s “physical or mental health.” This exception creates a significant loophole which will result in third trimester abortions.

The Family Foundation, which opposes both amendments, explains that Question 1 would:

• Allow abortions into the ninth month of pregnancy on healthy babies who feel pain.

• Eliminate parental consent and notification requirements on abortions for minors.

• Weaken existing health and safety regulations meant to protect women.

• Enable “gender transitions” for minors without parental involvement.

Question 1 gives this “right” to “every individual,” with no exception for minors. The Family Foundation warns that its “reproductive freedom” and “fertility care” language could allow girls and boys to receive opposite-sex hormones without their parents’ knowledge or consent.

The Family Foundation offers several videos explaining Question 1, the abortion amendment, in more detail.

The campaign behind Question 1 is led by Virginians for Reproductive Freedom. Its largest donors are Planned Parenthood Action Fund, the Virginia League for Planned Parenthood and the ACLU, according to the Virginia Public Access Project. 

Opponents include the Virginia Catholic Conference, Virginias for Safe Reproductive Policy and Virginia Medical Professionals for Women’s Safety.

The money gap is significant. Ballotpedia reports that supporters of Question 1 have raised more than $2.8 million, compared to about $172,000 for opponents.

According to the Wason Center, polling from January 2026 showed support for the Question 1 at 66%, with 28% in opposition. Those numbers were up from January 2025, when the same poll found support for the amendment was at 61% versus 32% in opposition. 

Question 2 — Marriage

Question 2 targets the institution of marriage by attempting to remove its natural definition from the state constitution. 

In 2006, Virginians added the definition of marriage — the union of one man and one woman —to their constitution by a vote of 57% to 42%.

Question 2 would strike that language. In its place, it would require the state to issue marriage licenses to, and treat equally, any two coupled adults, “regardless of the sex, gender, or race” of either person.

The Family Foundation explains that Question 2 would:

• Repeal the marriage amendment defining marriage as between one man and one woman.

• Enshrine gender ideology into the state constitution, which threatens parental rights and protection for girls in sports and their private spaces.

According to the Family Foundation, by listing “gender” separately from “sex,” Question 2 writes transgender ideology into Virginia’s constitution. They say that would put pressure on schools, businesses and the government to adopt policies conflicting with biological reality.

The campaign for Question 2 is led by Virginians for Marriage Equality, backed by the ACLU of Virginia and Equality Virginia. 

The Family Foundation leads the opposition.

According to Ballotpedia, supporters have raised more than $242,000, most of it services donated by the ACLU of Virginia. Opponents reported about $5,800 in contributions.

Focus on the Family urges all our friends to pray, vote, and encourage your family and friends to do the same. Voting is a civic duty. As Bible-believing Christians, it is incumbent upon us to vote our values this fall.

Early voting in Virginia runs through October 31. Election Day is November 3.